Question…
Written on 26 March 2008 by AneelQuestion: Which is better for the Giants future… a surprisingly decent 2008 season (82 wins), or a miserable 100+ loss season that helps show Brian Sabean the door? As a Giants fan, I don’t think I can root for a bad season, but would it be the worst thing in the world? If it’s going to be bad anyway, should we root for really bad?? What do you think?
I’m feeling somewhat political today… so let me get it all out of my system:
- “Guns don’t kill people, people do.” Um… as Dwight Schrute would say: False. Or, as Eddie Izzard says, “Guns don’t kill people, people kill people, and monkeys do too (if they have a gun).”
- More good news and hope thanks to stem cell research.
- I thought I’d seen it all… but then, this. Wow.
Easter Thoughts
Written on 23 March 2008 by Aneel- A little house-keeping… I’ve added a link to a great bay area sports site: The Bay Area Sports Machine. Check it out!
- I’ve also been working on my pictures… feel free to take a look here.
- Bill Plaschke is a big dummy. Why write anything else about it when Junior over at Fire Joe Morgan does such a great job?
- The Red Sox players nobly threatened to boycott their Japan-trip in support of coaches who wouldn’t be paid for the trip. Lost in the Boston love-fest are several items that should be noted:
- Not one of these generous millionaires offered to give up a penny of his $40,000 for a coach.
- The proposed boycott included the team’s final spring training game… so, screw you average-joe fan who paid $30 for a ticket.
- BOTH regular season games in Japan considered home games for the A’s? So… Oakland gets two fewer home games in ‘08, while Boston gives up nothing? Call me crazy, but wouldn’t one home game a piece be the obvious, fair solution? Poor Boston.
- And finally… we’re saved.
- Happy Easter… we are saved.
Brian Sabean’s “Speed” Kool-Aid
Written on 8 March 2008 by AneelFrom the first time I heard Brian Sabean state that he’s rebuilding the Giants based on “pitching, speed, and defense”, I assumed something was amiss. To me, Sabean’s assertion sounded a little bit too much like the recently dumped boyfriend who insists his new found, lonely, bachelorhood is a good thing. Just because the Giants currently have some pitching, speed, and defense, doesn’t mean that’s what a successful team should base its foundation upon.
Since “speed” is the only factor Sabean mentioned that plays any part in scoring runs, I want to examine it first. Now, it’s been a long time since I’ve dusted off the old data-analysis tool in Excel, but this snowy Saturday afternoon is the perfect opportunity.
What follows is a simple regression where Y (the dependent variable) is team runs scored and the two independent variables are:
X1 = Times on base (hits+bb+hbp)
X2 = Stolen base attempts
Using a fairly large sample size (the 1048 teams in MLB since 1969), a team’s total runs scored in a season (Y) can be predicted by the following equation:
Y = -252.045 + 0.493 X1 – 0.105 X2
Or
Runs Scored = -252.045 + 0.493 (H+BB+HBP) – 0.105 (SB attempts)
My R-squared (or the percent of variation in runs scored due to the variation in X1 and X2) is 79.49%, which means my two independent variables account for nearly 80% of the variation in runs scored. Not too shabby. Give it a try… plug in full season H+BB+HBP and SB attempts for a team and see how close the outcome comes to the team’s total runs scored.
This is a very, very simple example and definitely makes some questionable assumptions… but what it does allow me to say is:
If you assume that runs scored are determined entirely by (1) # of times reaching base and (2) # of attempted steals, then reaching base affects runs scored positively and stolen base attempts affect runs scored negatively.
For you stat-geeks, yes, I can make the previous assertion because the 95% confidence interval for the coefficient on X2 is [-0.157, -0.053].
Now, my 80% R-squared means that 20% of a team’s total runs scored are affected by something other than reaching base, and stolen base attempts (I’d bet power has a lot to do with it). But it’s doubtful that what lies in the other 20% will change the negative effect that attempted steals have here into something significantly positive.
What does that mean? To put it simply: An offensive strategy based entirely on “speed” is not a good idea, and I’m not drinking Sabean’s crazy Kool-Aid.
October 17… and October 25
Written on 17 October 2007 by AneelBig-D over at Giants Win reminded me what day it is today… October 17, eighteen years since the Loma Prieta earthquake. I was only 12, but that day stands out in my memory unlike any other day in my childhood. Two events, the Giants playing in the World Series and the largest earthquake I ever hope to experience crammed into one day.
In fact, the Giants have reached the World Series just twice in my lifetime, 1989 and 2002. In both years.. in both Octobers… and in the same week… the most memorable event of my childhood, and the most significant and painful event of my adult life took place. My mom passed away the morning after the Giants’ game 5 win in the ‘02 World Series, and I’ll never make it through an October without hurting.
That said, let me offer two links that I ask any reader of this site to visit. First, The Parkinson’s Disease Foundation, and second The Alliance for Stem Cell Research.
7 more for a team
Written on 15 October 2007 by AneelOur second son Ethan was born last week, I’ve put pics here. Noah is the tall, left-hand starter with overpowering stuff… Ethan is the switch-hitting catcher… Next up? The speedy center-fielder. Needless to say, I’ve had other things on my mind besides the ‘07 playoffs… but I do have some thoughts:
- Most people I’ve chatted with about the two LCS’ seem to say “who cares” about the NLCS… that’s an attitude I just don’t understand. If anything, the NLCS is by far the more intriguing of the two. Sure, the Indians are a good story and a fun team, but the Red Sox? Yuck. In their attempt to compete with the Yankees, they’ve become the Yankees… and I just don’t care. Manny — boring. Big Papi — tired. Both the Rockies and the Diamondbacks are young, exciting, and thrilled to be playing in October. And for all those who call the National League “quadruple-A”, I wouldn’t put money on any team over the Rockies right now… would you? Colorado over Boston in five, over Cleveland in six.
- Just like any real baseball fan, I couldn’t be happier to watch the Yankees get bounced in the Division Series again. The Boss apparently was the only person in America who didn’t see this coming. Who cares how many wins Wang had… he’s a .500 pitcher on just about any other team.
- Tim McCarver is bad… but TBS is worse. As Torrealba smacked a 3-run home run off Livan Hernandez last night, there was no mention of their time spent together on the Giants. I’m sure every Giants fan called it… Livan looked tired, and Torrealba knew what was coming.
- Tony Gwynn has… let himself go?
- I will never, ever watch Frank TV.
I’ll hopefully have time to get some more thoughts on the ALCS up tonight during the game.
more proof that football stinks
Written on 7 October 2007 by AneelTrent Green, laying on the ground motionless… Travis Johnson standing over him, taunting his lifeless body. A more disgusting display I have never seen.
catching up and venting
Written on 7 October 2007 by AneelIt’s been a long time since I’ve been able to sit down and write anything related to baseball… I’ve been pretty much swamped with family, work, and school responsibilities. Today though, I’m supposed to be studying all day and I always find a way to do everything BUT study. Chances are, I’ll wind up in the backyard pulling weeds in order to avoid studying.
Anyway, the first, and most comical bit of news is George Steinbrenner’s return to insanity. He’s tied Joe Torre’s job to the Yankees success in the ALDS. Good. I’m excited to see who Steinbrenner hires to replace Torre after the Yanks go down today.
Second, in the same article, Steinbrenner states that umpire Bruce Froemming “won’t be calling any more Yankee games” because of his decision to let game two continue despite the weird bug infestation. Later, Steinbrenner stated that “the Northeast will no longer be subject to seasonal temperature changes.” Good luck with that George.
Finally, I just want to express my frustration with the American Southeast. Last night, some friends and I went out to this ridiculous place to watch the Cubs/Diamondbacks game. In a sports bar with no fewer than 25 televisions, the game was playing on exactly zero screens. We had to bicker with the staff in order to get the game on a small corner TV. All the BSDs (big southern dummies) had to watch Ohio State/Purdue or some other college football game. I’ve only been here 18 months and I’m already going out of my mind. In California, you may not agree with every wack-job out there, but at least everyone isn’t the same support-our-troops, freedom-fries, football-lovin’, animal-shootin’, W-supportin’ wack-job. Seriously, I don’t have a problem with the conservative mindset, but it’s the insane default here in Alabama… without considering another way of thinking.
I’m ready to graduate.
stark love fest
Written on 19 September 2007 by AneelI realize that Trapped in LA has been something of a Jayson Stark promotional tool of late, but I received another mention in his Useless Information Blog, and so I’m reposting part of it here again.
RAISING CAIN
Is Matt Cain jealous of Adam Eaton and Horacio Ramirez? He ought to be. As we’ve mentioned in this blog a couple of times, Eaton and Ramirez have ERAs that look more like Peyton Manning’s yards per passing attempt — but neither of them has a losing record.Out in San Francisco, on the other hand, poor Matt Cain is having one of the greatest 7-15 seasons of all time.
His ERA is 3.71 — lower than the ERAs of Chien-Ming Wang (18 wins), Ted Lilly (15 wins) or Roy Halladay (15 wins).
He has made four starts in which he gave up no more than two hits — a total beaten only by Jake Peavy (six) — yet has won none of them.
He has made 11 starts in which he gave up one run or none — and hasn’t even won half of them (five of 11).
And opposing hitters are batting just .235 against him — lower than the averages against John Smoltz, Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett or Brad Penny.
Well, here’s the difference: Smoltz, Verlander, Beckett and Penny are all going to get Cy Young votes out of their seasons. And Matt Cain has gotten a 7-15 record out of his.
That sent loyal reader Aneel Trivedi to his annals, trying to figure out where Cain ranked on the list of Worst Records by Pitchers Who Are That Unhittable. He came up with this dazzling list of lowest opponent batting averages against pitchers with winning percentages under .350 (since 1900, with 30 starts or more):
PITCHER YEAR RECORD BAA Nolan Ryan 1987 8-16 (.333) .200 Walter Johnson 1909 13-25 (.342) .221 Jerry Koosman 1977 8-20 (.286) .232 Balor Moore 1973 7-16 (.304) .233 Matt Cain 2007 7-15 (.318) .235 Whew. It would take an 0-3 finish for Cain to have the lowest winning percentage of anyone in that group. And there’s probably not much chance of that. But if you’re on any kind of list with Nolan Ryan and Walter Johnson, there’s a good shot you’ve made some kind of history. And we have a feeling it’s not the last kind of history Matt Cain is going to make before he’s through, either. Except we’d bet the next kind will be a lot more attractive.
stark gets it right… again
Written on 7 September 2007 by AneelJayson Stark continues to be one of the only “cool heads” in sports writing… at least in my opinion. Time and time again he approaches even the most sensitive subject with a grasp of the big-picture… and he’s done it again here. Rick Ankiel & HGH, pitchers and steroids, NFL players and ‘roids… big picture. Well done Jayson.
a terrible loss
Written on 6 September 2007 by AneelGod bless you Alfred Peete. I never met you, but your product brings me joy each and every day.