they might be unlucky giants
29 August 2007So, there’s been tons of research done on the correlation between a team’s overall runs scored/allowed and win-loss record. Obviously, it makes sense… teams with positive run differentials are likely to have good win-loss records. Bill James’ pythagorean method, explained here, actually generates a projected winning percentage based entirely on runs scored and allowed. But, as is always the case, there are exceptions, outliers that don’t seem to fit the model. My friends, the 2007 Giants are a major, major outlier.
After last night’s 3-1 win, the Giants have scored EXACTLY as many runs as they’ve allowed (575), yet their record is just 61-72 (.459), nine games UNDER .500. No one should argue that the Giants are a playoff-caliber team, but there is plenty of evidence to support the claim that they are better than 61-72. Much, if not all of the Giants problems can be explained by their performance in close games this season, they are an NL worst 32-46 (.410) in games decided by two or fewer runs.
In fact, if you take a look at every team in baseball history that scored at least as many runs as it allowed, only four had a lower winning percentage than the ‘07 San Francisco Giants.
| Worst Record by Team with Non-Negative Run Differential - All-Time | ||
| Team | Record | Run Differential |
| Giants, 1972 | 69-86 (.445) | +13 (662-649) |
| Rockies, 2001 | 73-89 (.451) | +17 (923-906) |
| Giants, 1953 | 70-84 (.455) | +21 (768-747) |
| Cardinals, 1980 | 74-88 (.457) | +28 (738-710) |
| Giants, 2007 | 61-72 (.459) | +0 (575-575) |
Notice two other Giants teams make this list, which any fan could tell you makes sense. While we don’t whine nearly as much as the Red Sox or Cubs, we are just as tortured and have endured just as much as they have.
Back to my point… What does this mean for the Giants? Well, in part, they can take solace in knowing they’ve been better than their record reflects, and even if nothing about the team changes, you would expect the team to be better in 2008 (ignoring that two-thirds of team will receive their AARP cards). The pitching should improve as the youngsters gain more experience, and the offense is left to Brian Sabean… uh-oh.